CHOICES Study Simulates Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood

A new paper from CHOICES, “Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood,” was published today in The New England Journal of Medicine.


This study reiterates that the obesity epidemic is far from over and is likely to become much worse, as study results predict that 57% of today’s children will have obesity at age 35. This is a large increase, given that 37% of adults now have obesity. In addition, the study found that excess weight in childhood is highly predictive of adult obesity. This is especially true for children with severe obesity, even at very young ages. Public health professionals need to re-double their efforts to prevent such an outcome. The CHOICES Project has identified cost-effective interventions in school and community settings that can prevent future obesity cases.

To learn more, read a summary and the abstract of this paper.

Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood.
Ward Z, Long M, Resch S, Giles C, Cradock A, Gortmaker S. N Engl J Med. 2017 Nov 30;377(22):2145-2153.


Forecasting Trends in Child Obesity with Zach Ward

Lead author Zach Ward discusses the paper with the Center for Health Decision Science.

Forecasting Trends in Child Obesity with Zach Ward from CHDS Media Hub on Vimeo.


Media Coverage

This study garnered substantial media attention. See the list of full coverage:

  • “More Than Half Of Today’s American Kids Will Be Obese By Age 35, Harvard Study Projects” [WBUR]
  • “Majority of today’s U.S. children destined for obesity, study predicts” [Politico]
  • “’Scary’ prediction for U.S. kids: 57% could be obese by age 35” [USA Today]
  • “Most US Children Today Will Be Obese by Age 35″ [Medscape]
  • “60 Percent of U.S. Kids Could Be Obese by Age 35” [Medline Plus]
  • “More than half of U.S. kids will be obese by the time they’re 35, study predicts” [LA Times]
  • “Nearly 6 out of 10 of today’s children will be obese at 35, researchers say” [The Boston Globe]
  • “Health Buzz: More Than Half of US Kids Are Going to Be Obese At Age 35, Study Says” [U.S. News & World Report]
  • “More than half of American kids could be obese by age 35” [NY Daily News]
  • “If Current Trends Continue, Most of Today’s Youth Will Be Obese By Age 35” [Medical Research]
  • “More than half of U.S. children could be obese by age 35” [CBS News]
  • “Most American Kids Today Will Be Obese by Age 35” [Fortune]
  • “Majority Of American Kids Will Be Obese By Age 35, Research Says” [International Business Times]
  • “Over half American kids will be obese by 35: Report reveals more than 57% of children are dangerously unhealthy” [The Daily Mail]
  • “More than half of American children set to be obese by age 35, study finds” [The Guardian]
  • “More Than Half of American Kids May Be Obese by 35” [Time]
  • “In US, 57 percent of kids on track for obesity by 35: study” [Yahoo]
  • “If current trends in obesity keep up, the U.S. is going to be overflowing with fat people in 35 years” [Men’s Fitness]
  • “More Than Half of Children Projected to Be Obese By Age 35” [MD Magazine]
  • “More than half of today’s children will be obese adults” [Harvard Health Blog]
  • “Obesity Trends Indicate More Than Half of US Children at Risk” [Pharmacy Times]
  • “New prediction: 57 percent of kids could be obese by age 35” [Tallahassee Democrat]
  • “Obesity Trends Indicate More Than Half of US Children at Risk” [Contemporary Clinic]
  • “CHOICES research predicts long-term risks of obesity in children” [NCCOR]
  • “Forecast predicts over half of U.S. children will be obese by age 35” [Reuters]
  • “More than half of U.S. children will be obese by age 35, study suggests” [CBC News]
  • “More than half of U.S. kids will have obesity at 35 if current trends continue” [Fox 25 News Boston]
  • “57 percent of American children will grow up to be obese” [Baltimore Sun]