To evaluate the potential impact on obesity prevalence, and cost and cost effectiveness of prevention and treatment strategies, the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study (CHOICES) developed a simulation model of the US population. The model creates a virtual population that is representative of the US population, and follows these individuals over time as they grow and incur obesity-related health outcomes and expenditures. Data such as height, weight, food intake, and physical activity are synthesized from multiple sources including the US Census and National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES).
The CHOICES project uses this virtual US population to simulate baseline projections against which it can compare the costs and effects of specific obesity prevention and treatment interventions. This comparison allows researchers to estimate the difference an intervention will make in obesity prevalence and obesity-related health care costs and other health outcomes.
The simulated model is discussed in more detail in:
- Three Interventions That Reduce Childhood Obesity Are Projected to Save More Than They Cost to Implement.
Gortmaker SL, Claire Wang Y, Long MW, Giles CM, Ward ZJ, Barrett JL, Kenney EL, Sonneville KR, Afzal AS, Resch SC, Cradock AL.
Health Affairs, 34, no. 11 (2015):1304-1311.
Abstract | Full Text | Summary
- Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood.
Ward Z, Long M, Resch S, Giles C, Cradock A, Gortmaker S. N Engl J Med. 2017 Nov 30;377(22):2145-2153.
Abstract | Summary